STA347-Course Outline-Fall, 2008

Instructor: Philip McDunnough, SS6002 .

Text (required): Probability via Expectation, Peter Whittle, (Springer) - 4th ed.

Marking: Two 2-hour tests, each worth 25% and one 3-hour final exam (50%) . Any missed "test" increases the value of the final exam by the same amount. The final exam may be worth 100% if it is to your benefit.

Web site: www.utstat.toronto.edu/philip/courses/sta347/home.html

Lectures: Thursdays 6-->9.

Office Hours: 4-6PM on Wednesdays.

Extra help:  The TA's will hold office hours in SS2133. Times will be posted on this site.

Assignments: None but suggested problems will be given and solutions provided . It is important to do these as they indicate the level and type of questions to be found on each of the 2 tests.

Coverage

(A)- A summary of the theory of probability and expectations  (including conditional expectation) required for the study of stochastic processes.

(B)- Main limit results in probability .

(C)-The Poisson Process and variations .  Basic renewal processes.

(D)-Markov Chains including branching processes, simple random walks, limit theorems.

The material is taken from Chapters 1-->8, 9 (parts), 14 (very little), 16 (parts) of the text.


Main references:

- Introduction to Probability Models, Sheldon Ross,  (Academic Press) - , somewhat elementary for probability but excellent for Markov Chains and Poisson processes .

- An Introduction To Stochastic Modeling, H. M. Taylor, S. Karlin, (Academic Press) - right level, more stochastic process orientation

- Stochastic Processes , Sheldon Ross, (Wiley)  -  good reference for stochastic processes ( slightly more advanced than 347)

Other reference :

- Probability and Random Processes, Grimmett & Stirzaker,  (Oxford)  - a bit advanced, useful for STA447