To: Statistical Colleagues et al,	  Updated: March, 2008.

	Note: An IMS Press Release is attached below.

About one year ago, I indicated at this website that a detailed
paper was being prepared about a widely reported calculation that
I have done, and that if it was successful in the refereeing process
it would be made available. This paper concerns a certain tombsite
that was found in Jerusalem.

The purpose of this note is to say that my paper, titled
"Statistical Analysis of an Archeological Find" has now been
published in the IMS journal "Annals of Applied Statistics" (AOAS).
Further information about how to access this paper (without charge)
is provided in the IMS Press Release which is attached below.
Please note that the published version of this manuscript is the
only one that provides an accurate account of my work on this subject.

This work consists of multiple components: specifically, it
consists of: (1) an editorial by the Journal, (2) my paper,
(3) the comments of the discussants, and in particular
(4) my rejoinder to the discussants. It is very important
that these items all be considered as constituting essential
parts of the whole work lest any part of the work be taken
out of context.

This work, taken as a whole, constitutes my entire understanding
of the matter; please note that any `quotes' by media or by
others being attributed to me, but not taken from this work,
are apt to be unreliable, especially if not accompanied by the
detailed and careful qualifications that are given in the work.

I apologize for the fact that it is difficult for me to respond
to requests for information individually, and hope that the
information provided here addresses the most essential queries.


With best
Andrey Feuerverger



	========== From the IMS Press Release ==========


Subject: Press Release: The Numbers Behind the "The Lost Tomb of Jesus"

*INSTITUTE OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS <http://imstat.org/>*

NEWS RELEASE: For Immediate Release, March 23, 2008

*The Numbers Behind the "The Lost Tomb of Jesus"*

*** The Annals of Applied Statistics <http://imstat.org/aoas/>
releasing key article in authenticating tomb. ***

In 1980 a burial tomb was unearthed in Jerusalem containing ossuaries
(limestone coffins) bearing inscriptions indicating that it may be Jesus'
crypt. Last year, the Discovery Channel <http://dsc.discovery.com/> aired a
documentary entitled "The Lost Tomb of Jesus"
<http://dsc.discovery.com/convergence/tomb/tomb.html>
describing the find and the recent research performed to authenticate the
tomb.  The Discovery Channel presented interpretations of the ossuary
inscriptions from a number of perspectives. Among these was a statistical
calculation attributed to the statistician Andrey Feuerverger
<http://www.utstat.utoronto.ca/andrey/>,
that "the odds that all six names would appear together in one tomb are
1 in 600, calculated conservatively - or possibly even as much as one
in one million."

Andrey Feuerverger, a Professor of Statistics at the University of Toronto,
lays out the full statistical analysis of names on the ossuaries in his
article entitled, "Statistical Analysis of an Archeological Find"
<http://projecteuclid.org/aoas> appearing in the March 2008 issue of the
*Annals of Applied Statistics.* The paper is followed by an exchange
with a broad array of statistical experts about the statistical
conclusions and their interpretation about the New Testament family.
The findings are far more nuanced than the quote attributed originally
to Feuerverger in the Discovery Channel presentation. The article will
be available March 24, 2008 at http://projecteuclid.org/aoas.

Stephen Fienberg <http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~fienberg/>, one of the four
editors of the *Annals of Applied Statistics*, notes, "Feuerverger's paper
offers a detailed and thoughtful explication of ossuary inscriptions and
biblical era names, and exhibits the nuances inherent in first-rate applied
statistical work. One might take issue with some assumptions but not with
the care with which he has approached them, nor with any of the actual
statistical calculations. The paper is a must-read for anyone interested in
what we conclude from the inscriptions in the tomb. But, as the discussants
make clear, despite the quality of Feuerverger's work, the controversy over
the 'Lost Tomb of Jesus' will certainly continue."

The *Annals of Applied Statistics* is published quarterly by the Institute
of Mathematical Statistics <http://imstat.org/> (IMS). The IMS has no
relationship with the Discovery Channel.